The baby boomers retire!
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Germany, Czech Republic, Italy and Austria will face 2050 with the strongest decline in the workforce due to demographic change. At the same time the number of workers with tertiary education by 2050 will fall in Germany, France and Great Britain the most. Companies should therefore their internal demographic already analyzed in order to prevent significant long-term staffing shortages. These are the findings of an international study of management consultancy Towers Perrin, which predicts the world for 15 countries the changes in age structure and size of the worker pool by 2050.
From the perspective of rating agencies, the aging be the company with concerted political and fiscal reforms met. Otherwise, an immense pressure on public finances and threatening the sovereign rating. Standard & Poor's (S & P), for example, analyzed the risks of aging in 32 states. Without reforms, the total would rise with the aging of the population-related public expenditure in 2050 to 23.2% of the gross domestic product (GDP), estimated S & P analyst Kai Stukenbrock. In this scenario, the budget deficit from the mid-2020s rise considerably, reaching by 2050 about 12% of GDP. The total national debt would be at 180% of GDP.
basic problem: A higher average age of a shrinking working population - in this new demographic challenges are many industrial countries in coming decades. "There are significant differences between countries, regions and occupations," says Sylvia Branke, director of talent management consulting at Towers Perrin. In Europe, bringing the number of employed persons in 2050 to around 18 percent - more than in all other regions saw the world. According to the projections, however, the increasing number of workers in the U.S. by 10 percent in Argentina and Brazil even by 36 or 48 percent. The reason is the low birth rates in Europe and a relatively high immigration rate in the U.S. and the strong population growth in Latin America.
international comparison shows that Germany is particularly affected by the reduction of the labor pool. So here the number of employed persons with tertiary education from 2009 to 2049 by around 3.2 million (21 percent) will decline. "Exacerbated the shortage of new recruits, the fact that the potential labor force in Germany is already exploited well. Therefore, there is little scope to recruit more workers to a significant extent within its own population, " white Branke. Similarly demonstrates the serious situation in Great Britain and France with expected 3 million and 2.3 million fewer workers with higher education in 2049th Argentina, Brazil and the United States, by contrast, have considerably more college graduates have on the labor market. However, remains to be seen whether such proportion as in Brazil the number of workers with university degrees to population growth increases.
is considerably older population in future, especially in Germany, Italy and Switzerland. With a current average of 40 years to 2049, averaging over 50 years, this country's much older populations than their neighbors in Europe. Even more dramatic shows, the situation in countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic. They list in addition to the aging of the population or a large exodus of working people abroad. For comparison, also the average age in the U.S. and Latin America will increase significantly. However, here the population at large - and with it the potential labor force - grow.
are enterprises in Germany by the identified demographic risks facing great challenges. You have to recruit in a future by scarcity and increased competition dominated labor personnel. It is much more difficult be to fill vacancies. Thus, not only the continuation of existing business strategies is at stake. Even more problematic it would be under these circumstances, future planned growth strategies that require additional staff lead to implement. Given this shortage it is important to prevent older workers longer in the business. In addition - also increases the pension costs - in light of the retirement date from which many older workers. This development is particularly relevant in the context of the first stage of risk identification in the company. This begins with the collection of all the business objectives and develop a risk-acting company-specific risk tree. The question of the problems in obtaining qualified personnel is primarily in the context of the business risks (corporate governance).
"company is therefore highly advisable not to raise the future development of their workforce in a demographic analysis lies", says expert Branke. Companies should ask themselves the questions now, how old the workforce in 30 or 50 years will be average, or whether pending retirement wave and thus already emerging, an increased recruitment or training needs. Branke recommends to keep it, both the external and internal corporate demographics in mind. "A internal high average age in occupations with good availability in the market can, for example, prove to be problematic as a high average age of a professional group with poor availability in the labor market, "said Branke. The results of such a demographic analysis, for example, by age and skill groups that are prepared in detail for regions within countries or internationally. Company giving you a detailed study of the size of workers and markets useful results for further human resources planning.
Based on a reliable forecast of workforce and human resources development, it is then, the long-term policy planning staff. Thus, for example, via a long-term workforce planning, talent management programs and includes targeted succession planning, reduce bottlenecks, avoid any recruitment for positions or qualified. "Compensation and benefits such as occupational pensions should be in terms of employee retention and recovery reviewed and adjusted as necessary," added Dr. Thomas Jasper, Head of General Consulting at Towers Perrin. Especially in the design of pension plans and working-life accounts, the needs of an aging workforce are given special consideration. In this way can, older workers - For example with a smooth transition into retirement - longer able to work to keep the company.
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