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The mood in the German economy has to start to brighten again surprising. The Ifo business climate index rose from 109.8 points in the previous month to 110.3 points as the Ifo Institute for Economic Research announced. Many experts had expected, however, as in previous months, with a slight slowdown, but again been wrong.
new records - Germany's entrepreneurs are no longer as optimistic as long. Many economists had expected, as in previous months, with a slight slowdown, but again been wrong. The Ifo business climate index rose in January to 110.3 points from 109.8 points the previous month. This is a new record since the reunification. "The German economy will start sweeping in the new year," but could Ifo president Hans-Werner announce sense. "The business climate thus builds on the positive development of last year."
"The German economy will start sweeping in the new year," said Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn. The Ifo index is the most important leading indicator of the German economy.
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Social networks like Facebook, StudiVZ or Xing play in finding a job, an increasingly important role. Meanwhile, published 29 percent of enterprises in Germany vacancies in online networks, said the industry association Bitkom. The year before there were only twelve percent.
used, especially large companies that path in the search for new employees. Among firms with more than 500 employees in 2010, published as 58 percent of their job ads in social networks for small and medium-sized enterprises, the percentage to 29 percent. There are also differences between the sectors: Already 41 percent of the surveyed ICT companies use the Web 2.0 in the recruitment, but only 16 percent of construction companies.
"The Web 2.0 is the job market of the future," said Bitkom president August-Wilhelm Scheer. "Businesses need to be present, where the networking people professionally and personally, gather information or spend part of their leisure time."
The most important medium for the labor market but are still online job boards like Monster and Stepstone. These portals published 71 percent of their business applications. It follows its own website, which provides two thirds all companies will be used. 55 percent of respondents want ads in print editions of newspapers. 23 percent of companies use industry-specific online job boards and 20 percent of print magazines.
Bitkom had been a representative survey of 1,500 companies from all sectors in order.
that the reason for it, especially in the strong export orientation of the country, said Chairman of the Advisory Council on the Council of Economic Affairs, Wolfgang Franz, the export orientation is for the unexpected recovery this year just as responsible as for the historical GDP decline of 4.7% last year. They also explain in large part why the German unemployment has risen during the crisis barely. The export-oriented industries employ in fact, many professionals, they did not want to lose is possible, the rather unconventional explanation of the experts. They therefore prefer to speak of a "labor hoarding" instead of a "job miracle".
The experts now see "Opportunities for stable growth" as the title of its annual report states. This should rest on two pillars: first, on a shift of growth towards domestic demand, because the low unemployment is expected to boost private consumption and should stimulate the historically low real interest rates of private investment and partly to the continued success of the very competitive German companies in global markets. Total is expected for 2011, with GDP growth of 2.2%. That may sound like a relatively strong continuation of the upswing. Note, however, that you start with a so-called carry-over effect of 1.5% in the new year and is the GDP growth from the beginning to the end of 2011, only 0.7% forecast.
The surprising recovery has not only alleviated many problems in business and politics, he has also voted the experts milder. A year ago they still had sharp criticism of the economic and financial failures of the German Government practiced now, ventures fall significantly more moderate. Of the five main demands of the experts, the government two meet at most indirectly: Where are overcoming the Euro-crisis with a new operational framework for monetary union and a reform of international financial markets, where for instance the question of how to deal with systemically important banks is still unclear.
relative to Germany, experts are worried primarily about the budgetary policy. The course of deficit reduction is essential to continue, for there were tax cuts until well into the next legislative period, no room inside, they say. In the tax policy should rather the reform of municipal finances and the abolition of reduced VAT rates to be addressed. Old demands reaffirm the "economic experts" in the social and labor market policy. Thus, they require a strengthening of incentives to work for Hartz IV recipients, removal of minimum wages or better health policies - some of the many reforms that the government has long been not tackle effectively.
Although Germany is a whole, on its way there, according to the experts with significant risks to the economic transition. At a recent downturn comes from, because some major trading partners with economic and Financial problems are fighting, new shocks in the financial markets can not be excluded and could discharge the tensions in the international monetary system in a strong euro and protectionism.
"Even if Basel III only be fully implemented until the end of 2018 into national law, access, central schemes as early as 2013," says Oliver Tiebing, Senior Executive Manager at Steria Mummert Consulting. "Institutions that have failed so far to obtain additional equity or accordingly to reduce its risk positions, the return on equity at the very start of the implementation horizon come under heavy pressure." The argument that for some Capital instruments are long transition periods, defused the situation with closer inspection, not. "The more stringent regulatory requirements bind not only human and financial resources but also have an impact also on the business models of banks. Who has time to play here, in the end probably lost more than won, "banking expert has to consider Tiebing. At worst, it could even lead to market distortions due to Basel III.
Overall it is clear in the rules of Basel III, a U-turn in the international financial supervision. Was the basic idea of Basel II is still, the rigid and not very diversified requirements of the regulatory law on more business align individual needs and requirements of individual business models, is now an intense and consistent regulation of financial markets on the agenda. "The banks have much less choice in future, how they want to pursue banking. Therefore passes a comprehensive analysis of the business model and the rapid identification of areas for action is no way, "said Tiebing.
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IT-based automation of compliance management
According to a study by the consulting firm BearingPoint companies will increasingly invest in their compliance management. Sun 65 percent of respondents expect 2015 to "increase" or even "soaring" costs to adapt their compliance management accordingly. Investment is particularly needed in the areas of marketing, sales / customer, risk management, treasury and IT. For the majority of the respondents compliance management has become an integral part of their corporate strategy. 59 percent have already established a separate compliance department.
Great catching up to see The respondents were in IT-based automation of compliance management. For review of fixed rules still perform manual checks by 58 percent without systemic support. 19 respondents provide compliance guidelines are still in paper form, in only 27 percent of companies surveyed are stored electronically in one centralized location, and only 54 percent combine the two variants in the context of their compliance management. After all, already 67 percent of companies have introduced the one and three years an appropriate IT system, 30 percent plan to the development or implementation of such systems.
"The increasing volume of new regulations makes It requires policies and procedures more frequently and more quickly adapt. This forces the companies continue to lay even more attention on the issue of compliance and processes more efficient and transparent, "says Dieter Stein Hueser, Senior Manager at BearingPoint and author of the study. "IT-based automation is essential. Who operates compliance management only as an isolated solution structure and without risking security breaches in the long term, significant additional costs, brand damage and, ultimately, his competitiveness, "added Oliver Engelbrecht, director at BearingPoint.
